Published January 19, 2023 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Decomposing trends in bird populations: Climate, life histories and habitat affect different aspects of population change

  • 1. ROR icon Charles University
  • 2. ROR icon Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Vertebrate Biology
  • 3. Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
  • 4. Czech Society for Ornithology
  • 5. ROR icon Palacký University Olomouc

Description

Aim: Despite the complexity of population dynamics, most studies concerning current changes in bird populations reduce the trajectory of population change to a linear 
trend. This may hide more complex patterns reflecting responses of bird populations to changing anthropogenic pressures. Here, we address this complexity by means of 
multivariate analysis and attribute different components of bird population dynamics to different potential drivers.
Location: Czech Republic.
Methods: We used data on population trajectories (1982–2019) of 111 common breeding bird species, decomposed them into independent components by means 
of the principal component analysis (PCA), and related these components to multiple potential drivers comprising climate, land use change and species' life histories.
Results: The first two ordination axes explained substantial proportion of variability of population dynamics (42.0 and 12.5% of variation in PC1 and PC2 respectively). 
The first axis captured linear population trend. Species with increasing populations were characterized mostly by long lifespan and warmer climatic niches. The effect 
of habitat was less pronounced but still significant, with negative trends being typical for farmland birds, while positive trends characterized birds of deciduous forests. 
The second axis captured the contrast between hump-shaped and U-shaped population trajectories and was even more strongly associated with species traits. Species 
migrating longer distances and species with narrower temperature niches revealed  hump-shaped population trends, so that their populations mostly increased before 
2000 and then declined. These patterns are supported by the trends of total abundances of respective ecological groups.
Main Conclusion: Although habitat transformation apparently drives population trajectories in some species groups, climate change and associated species traits represent crucial drivers of complex population dynamics of central European birds. Decomposing population dynamics into separate components brings unique insights 
into non-trivial patterns of population change and their drivers, and may potentially indicate changes in the regime of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity.

Other

We are grateful to all the volunteers who collect data in the BBMP over decades

Notes

P.K. was funded by the European Union (ERC, BEAST, 101044740). Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council Executive Agency; neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

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Additional details

Related works

Reviews
Peer review: https://publons.com/publon/10.1111/ddi.13682 (Other)

Funding

European Commission
BEAST - Biodiversity dynamics across a continuum of space, time, and their scales 101044740
Czech Science Foundation
Grant 20-29554X
Czech Science Foundation
Grant 20-00648S
Charles University
PRIMUS PRIMUS/17/SCI/16
Charles University
University Research Centre program 204069