Published March 11, 2024 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Climate change, thermal anomalies, and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil

  • 1. ROR icon Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
  • 2. ROR icon Barcelona Supercomputing Center
  • 3. ROR icon Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats
  • 4. ROR icon London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Description

Abstract

Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and demographic indicators that could explain the recent (2014–2020) and simultaneous trends of expansion and exacerbation of the incidence in some regions of Brazil. The previous circulation of the virus (dengue incidence rates between 2007 and 2013), urbanization, and the occurrence of temperature anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously acted as a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed during this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.

Technical info (English)

Data availability

The datasets generated during the current study were collected from open and free data platforms and are available on Zenodo repository under https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10404906. The algorithm code developed to generate indicators of climate anomalies is available at https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10592772 and https://github.com/vanderpascoal/ClimateCorr.

Notes (English)

Funding

This work was supported by the HARMONIZE project funded by the Wellcome Trust (224694/Z/21/Z) and the E4Warning project funded by EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (grant agreement 101086640). The Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory is financed by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, 444665/2023-4). RL was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship. RML acknowledges the Beatriu de Pinós program (2021 BP 00197) from the Secretariat of Universities and Research of the Research and Universities Department of the Generalitat de Catalunya.

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Additional details

Related works

Funding

European Commission
E4Warning - Eco-Epidemiological Intelligence for early Warning and response to mosquito-borne disease risk in Endemic and Emergence settings 101086640
Wellcome Trust
HARMONIZE 224694/Z/21/Z

Software

Repository URL
https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10592772
Programming language
R
Development Status
Active