The relationship between skills training and migration aspirations: evidence from Bangladesh, Egypt and Nigeria

This working paper is deliverable D7.3 under the Horizon Europe project "Global Strategy for Skills, Migration and Development" (GS4S). There is strong interest amongst donors in shaping the decisions of prospective migrants from the Global South – often to steer them towards regular migration pathways but also to dissuade them from leaving in the first place. Skills training programmes are one popular policy instrument in this area and are frequently implemented with the (implicit) assumption that if people participate in them then their migration aspirations are likely to diminish. Yet there is extremely limited evidence to back up such thinking. This study sets out to address this critical knowledge gap by examining whether – and in what ways specifically – skills training programmes may be associated with migration aspirations in Bangladesh, Egypt and Nigeria, asking: ‘How do people’s experiences with skills training programmes influence their livelihood activity and migration aspirations?’ To answer this, we draw on original survey data from two sites within each of the three countries that captures the perspectives and experiences of both programme participants and non-participants alike. The results from the study show a positive association between participating in a skills training programme and migration aspirations, with particularly strong and consistent results for the sample from Bangladesh. Skills training participation is also positively associated with work and livelihood outcomes – in particular the likelihood of actively seeking new employment. However, the results also show that skills training participants found it difficult to find employment in their local areas. Our findings therefore show that the relationship between skills trainings, migration aspirations and work / livelihoods is far from the straightforward association that policy makers often assume when they use skills trainings as a migration management tool. On the one hand, skills trainings potentially attract those that already want to migrate or strengthen latent migration aspirations. On the other hand, if the skills learnt cannot easily be applied locally, this may make it hard for participants to find jobs in their local area and encourage them to look further afield for better options. To diminish migration aspirations, trainings must be targeted to local labour markets.