Agriculture is one of the main causes of biodiversity decline worldwide. Several scenarios for biodiversity-friendly agriculture have already been modelled at European level, demonstrating their biophysical feasibility. However, their socio-economic implications still need to be explored, as well as the policies that would enable to address these. This is the purpose of this study, which is Deliverable 1.2 of the Transformative Change for Biodiversity & Equity project (TC4BE). To this end, we (i) conducted interviews with public policy actors to better understand what new research and evidence they need to design better policies in support of the transition, (ii) conducted a bibliographic analysis of the literature on the costs and the mechanisms of the transition, (iii) carried out a case study examining the socio-economic implications of a biodiversity-friendly agricultural scenario on the food processing industry in the Champagne-Ardenne region.

Our interviews with experts show that policy makers want to understand the changes involved in the transition and need to know its socio-economic consequences, going beyond a “simple” (yet already complicated) costing. Secondly, our literature review highlights three main gaps: a lack of analysis of biodiversity and of the consequences of the transition on the agri-food industry, as well as the need to better characterize the structural changes in production tools linked to the transition. Finally, modelling a biodiversity-friendly scenario and crop rotation with a view to diversity and circularity, allows us to analyse how a biodiversity-friendly scenario impacts the volumes allocated to industries in our study region. This case study identified three types of industries that are impacted differently by the biodiversity-friendly scenario: (i) industries that are maintaining their position (processing primary cereals and potatoes), whose supply is maintained but whose production costs are likely to increase; (ii) declining industries (processing sugar beet and rapeseed), which suffer from supply disruptions. Some of them will have to close, resulting in stranded assets of around €1,518 million and the loss of 930 jobs. (iii) Industries to be developed and created (processing hemp, dehydrated alfalfa, protein crops and secondary cereals), for which processing volumes are increasing. The need to create new factories will require an investment of €920 million and the creation of 1,060 jobs. This analysis highlights the need for different public policies for each type of industry, resulting in significant and varied requirements. The main needs identified are: (i) support for competitiveness for industries that are maintaining their position; (ii) social support for industries in decline; (iii) support for demand, the creation of industrial tools, production and the organisation of sectors for industries to be developed and created.