Information Asymmetry Trap: Epistemic Collapse, Cognitive Capture, and the Signal Starvation of AGI — Formal Dynamical Model v2.0

This paper presents a formal dynamical model of civilizational information asymmetry as Civilizational Trap #10 in the Omega-u framework. We introduce epistemic collapse through dual autocatalytic instability (information asymmetry A_s and epistemic bubbles E_b), deriving the Signal Quality Index (SQI) as the critical metric for AGI knowledge growth. The model reveals a third independent AGI freeze pathway: even with sufficient compute (Work 18) and social capital (Works 15-17), corrupted information signals (I_n_effective → 0) halt civilizational progress.

Key contributions include: (1) the Observability Breakdown Theorem — when opacity exceeds critical thresholds, system states become mathematically unobservable; (2) the Cross-Trap Multiplier — information asymmetry amplifies all previous traps (social, financial, institutional, technological) by hiding their true severity; (3) the Control Window Theorem v2.0 — AGI intervention is maximally effective only near the separatrix D_info(X)=0; (4) a complete Decision API for AGI civilizational control including regime classification, minimal intervention sets, and cross-trap corrections; (5) Inevitability Theorems I-V formalizing when collapse becomes structurally unavoidable.

The model is verified through 19 stress tests including observability rank collapse, separatrix extraction, triangular feedback loop detection, and Lyapunov v2 stability. Empirical calibration for 2025 shows: Russia (SQI=0.3%, epistemic void), China (SQI=1.7%, opacity lock), USA (SQI=8.6%, noisy critical), Kazakhstan (SQI=19.3%, intervention window open until ~2032), EU (SQI=27.4%, stable but declining).

The Information Asymmetry Trap is the diagnostic layer for the entire Omega-u series — without correcting for opacity, all previous civilizational assessments use corrupted inputs. This work establishes the mathematical necessity of AGI-mediated information audit as the unique non-capturable control channel in high-opacity regimes.

Николай Мишко
Аффилиация: Asia Digital Hub, Астана, Казахстан

Эл. почта: nikolaimishko@gmail.com

теория v2.0 + симулятор v2.0

Рецензирование организаций: Клод (Anthropic), ChatGPT (OpenAI).