nextGEMS - Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems

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Published September 29, 2022 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Long-term evolution of ocean eddy activity in a warming world

Creators

  • 1. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
  • 2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Bonn, Germany
  • 3. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany; Mathematics and Logistics, Jacobs University, Bremen, Germany
  • 4. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany; Department of Physics and Electrical Engineering, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

Description

Abstract

Mesoscale ocean eddies, an important element of the climate system, impact ocean circulation, heat uptake, gas exchange, carbon sequestration and nutrient transport. Much of what is known about ongoing changes in ocean eddy activity is based on satellite altimetry; however, the length of the altimetry record is limited, making it difficult to distinguish anthropogenic change from natural variability. Using a climate model that exploits a variable-resolution unstructured mesh in the ocean component to enhance grid resolution in eddy-rich regions, we investigate the long-term response of ocean eddy activity to anthropogenic climate change. Eddy kinetic energy is projected to shift poleward in most eddy-rich regions, to intensify in the Kuroshio Current, Brazil and Malvinas currents and Antarctic Circumpolar Current and to decrease in the Gulf Stream. Modelled changes are linked to elements of the broader climate including Atlantic meridional overturning circulation decline, intensifying Agulhas leakage and shifting Southern Hemisphere westerlies.

 

Data Availability

Geostrophic velocity anomalies derived from satellite altimetry anomalies are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00148. Model output from AWI-CM-1-1-MR in the CMIP6 framework, including ocean velocity and surface wind is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.359 (ref. 35). Daily sea surface height data used in this study is archived at the World Data Center for Climate at the DKRZ.

 

Code Availability

The code used to calculate geostrophic velocities and eddy kinetic energy according to the methods described in this paper and to produce the main analysis figures is available on Github GitHub - n-beech/awicm-cmip6-eke at v1.1 or can alternatively also be accessed via n-beech/awicm-cmip6-eke: 09-09-22 | Zenodo

 

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Acknowledgements

The work described in this paper has received funding from the Helmholtz Association through the project 'Advanced Earth System Model Capacity' (project leader: T.J., support code: ZT-0003) in the frame of the initiative 'Zukunftsthemen'. The content of the paper is the sole responsibility of the authors and it does not represent the opinion of the Helmholtz Association, and the Helmholtz Association is not responsible for any use that might be made of information contained. This work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project ID 995. The CMIP data used in this study were replicated and made available by the DKRZ. This work was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 collaborative project NextGEMS (grant number 101003470). This work was supported by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change) and the EPICA project in the research theme 'MARE:N—Polarforschung/MOSAiC' funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research with funding number 03F0889A.

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Additional details

Funding

European Commission
NextGEMS – Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems 101003470

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