IAM COMPACT - Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action

Part of EU Open Research Repository
Published August 31, 2025 | Version v1
Project deliverable Open

IAM_COMPACT_D5.7_Behaviour_social_and_disruptive_innovation

Authors/Creators

  • 1. ROR icon Universidad de Valladolid
  • 2. ROR icon University of Geneva
  • 3. ROR icon University of Piraeus
  • 4. E3Modelling SA
  • 5. ROR icon Aalto University
  • 6. Aalborg University
  • 7. ROR icon Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
  • 8. ROR icon National Technical University of Athens
  • 9. ROR icon Basque Centre for Climate Change
  • 10. ROR icon CICERO Center for International Climate Research
  • 11. ROR icon Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
  • 12. CARTIF

Description

Intended to reflect the IAM COMPACT project’s research efforts in issues relating to behavioural, societal, and disruptive innovation, this deliverable first applies hindcasting using the D-EXPANSE model across 31 European countries, revealing that real-world electricity transitions deviate from cost-optimal scenarios by 44–60%, far exceeding the commonly assumed 10–20% slack in Modelling to Generate Alternatives, highlighting the need for empirically grounded, country-specific slack values. It then shows that incorporating geopolitical risks into the D-EXPANSE electricity system model improved hindcasting accuracy of the technology mix for many European countries—especially larger ones—by better reflecting real-world diversification toward renewables, though disentangling geopolitical effects from broader societal factors remains a key challenge for future research. The deliverable then shows that, while climate finance has reached record levels, it remains vastly insufficient, inequitably distributed, and skewed toward mitigation over adaptation, with persistent gaps in transparency, definitions, and governance. Without structural reforms to align finance with local priorities, enhance access, and ensure accountability, global climate goals risk being undermined by continued political inertia and systemic inequities. Finally, it investigates the impact of lifestyle changes in the EU-27, particularly in mobility, housing, and diets, finding that these can reduce emissions by 10–25%, offering significant mitigation potential even under ambitious policy scenarios, with generally beneficial cost impacts, though future implementation depends on addressing social acceptance and harmonising data inconsistencies across models.

Files

D5.7 - Behavioural, social and disruptive innovation - Update v1.00_SUBMITTED_HQ.pdf

Files (305.8 MB)

Additional details

Related works

Is new version of
Project deliverable: 10.5281/zenodo.12751959 (DOI)

Funding

European Commission
IAM COMPACT - Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action 101056306