D5.3 Arctic services impact assessments and generalisation

The main objective of the Arctic PASSION project is to co-create a coherent, integrated Arctic Observing System of Systems (pan-AOSS) to enhance monitoring of the immense impacts of climate change in the Arctic region. This effort is undertaken in close cooperation with Indigenous Peoples and local communities, and focuses on integrating diverse Arctic observations, improving data management, optimising observing networks, and developing new, user-oriented services. WP5 aims to demonstrate the societal and economic value of the resulting Arctic services (ASs) developed in Arctic PASSION. Clear communication of these benefits is crucial to increase understanding of the importance of the pan-AOSS, guiding improvements, and justifying current and future investments. Deliverable 5.3 builds on the work of Deliverable 5.1 (Description of a versatile benefit assessment approach and Arctic resilience societal indicators for the pan-AOSS) and Deliverable 5.2 (Toolset for societal benefit estimates).

Toolset compiled in Deliverable 5.2 is applied to each AS. First, the societal benefits are assessed via value chain analysis (VCA), where the value creation of each AS is represented in a stepwise process, with an emphasis on the benefits for society and end users. The findings are complemented by previous literature. In addition, VCA guides the selection of suitable ASs for further economic evaluation. Economic evaluation is conducted for AS6 (Improving safety for shipping in the polar seas, POLARIS) and AS8 (Lake Ice Service for Arctic Climate and Safety, LIS). For AS5 (Air Quality Forecast for Arctic Communities, AURORAE) a more general assessment of the potential value of information on air quality is presented. The main evaluation and valuation methods are avoided cost (or cost-loss) approach and benefit transfer.

Findings of the report highlight the various types of benefits resulting from the Arctic services, especially for local communities living in the Arctic but also for the scientific community. Benefits for the local communities living in the Arctic are especially emphasised in AS1 (Event Database) by preserving the Indigenous Knowledge, Traditional Knowledge and Local Knowledge combined with Community Based Monitoring, and AS7 (Arctic marine climate change and living resources) by supporting local and scientific data needs, encompassing inclusive decision-making and enhancing local capacity. While the information is mainly targeted towards Indigenous communities (AS1) and local communities (AS7), it also promotes ethical knowledge sharing between the knowledge holders and the scientific community. AS2 (ALEX) benefits the local communities by allowing monitoring of surface changes and enabling informed decisions related to activities sensitive to permafrost thaw, such as site selection in subsistence, infrastructure and leisure. AS3 (State of the Arctic Environment) offers a way to access comprehensive information on the current state of the environment, supporting a wider understanding of the environmental indicators' changes in the Arctic. Similarly, AS4 (INFRA) and AS5 (AURORAE) contribute to better awareness and understanding of wildfires and air pollution migration and deposition in the Arctic which can have great benefits, for example, through healthcare savings. Respectively, AS8 (LIS) provides information about the lake ice coverage and AS6 (POLARIS) about the sea ice related risk to ships in the Arctic. Accurate information about the lake ice results in safety improvements, avoided (in-situ monitoring and recreational) trip costs, optimised production in hydroelectricity and flood risk monitoring. AS6 provides information to ships sailing in ice-covered Arctic seas to make more informed navigation decisions, transferring to avoided social and private costs.

Public investment in large-scale climate and environmental information and monitoring systems requires accountability and evidence-based decision-making, which calls for more inclusive and comprehensive societal benefit assessments to ensure that public funds are allocated efficiently and equitably for all. Evaluating impacts of large-scale projects and initiatives, however, involves complex, long-term, and often diffuse outcomes and challenges which is why more narrowly scoped assessments focusing on individual climate services or end users are often more precise but poorly include the net benefits for society. Moreover, ex ante evaluations of new climate services are highly uncertain due to a lack of data on the actual use of the service. As such, developing transparent and scalable methods for measuring broader benefits of pan-AOSS will be crucial in ensuring that future initiatives and investments align with societal needs and values.