Ex-post evaluation of climate policies and identification of barriers and milestones towards climate neutrality

This report presents an approach for evaluating climate policies by comparing observed data with modelled projections. It highlights the discrepancies between 
enacted policies and their outcomes, and identifies key barriers and enablers. The observed data includes current policies, NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) 
and promised goals, as well as actual policy outcomes like emissions reductions and coal reduction trajectories. These observed data points are compared with results 
from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), both national and global, as well as other modelling approaches, i.e. in our work we combine many different lines of evidence.

We identify two major gaps: the gap between enacted policies and actual outcomes, and the gap between NDC ambition and current policies, particularly in fossil fuel-dependent countries. 

The insights from different models suggest that assumptions in the models can be improved from a feasibility perspective. Recommendations include updates on solar 
energy, more feasible coal decline rates, and increased focus on biomass, hydrogen, CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), and natural gas sensitivities.

Overall, our work underscores the importance of integrating observed data and modelled projections to understand the effectiveness of climate policies and identify 
pathways to overcome policy lock-ins and achieve more ambitious climate goals. It highlights how different lines of evidence could be used to make sure that there is a 
dialogue between work conducted in integrated assessment models and the policy implementation in the real world.