Interim report on collaborative systems and DAPP approaches to develop forward looking DRM pathways

This report presents findings on two key aspects of developing forward-looking DRM pathways: (1) feedback from pilot leads on their experience with implementing the proposed collaborative systems analysis approach outlined previously in D6.2 during the first round of pilot workshops (PW1), and; (2) DAPP-MR – the proposed, staged, iterative analytical process to follow to facilitate the assessment of multiple possible pathways to adapt to current and future multi-risk challenges.

Collaborative systems analysis approach

In Task 6.1, we developed an approach for collaborative systems analysis to allow decision-makers and policymakers to accurately describe their DRM decision-making contexts. This description serves as the foundation for the development of forward-looking DRM pathways. The proposed approach therefore serves as a means by which to undertake the first step of the DAPP-MR approach (Figure 4 in this report) and the equivalent context setting-related elements of the proposed MYRIAD-EU framework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management. Some of the pilots applied several of the collaborative tools that were presented in D6.2 according to which pilot teams felt most comfortable and were relevant to their workshop activities and practical needs (e.g., virtual versus in-person settings). Although the collaborative systems analysis approach was not applied either systematically or in full by any pilot, this was not the intention within the context of PW1, which also had other priorities. In general, pilots conducted relatively shallow analyses of their systems together with stakeholders, focussing primarily on those aspects relating most to step 1 of the MYRIAD-EU framework. Nevertheless, the pilots were generally positive about the proposed approach and its ability to achieve its objectives. The authors look forward to the pilots deepening their analyses though (adapted) applications of the remainder of the proposed approach as they move towards assessing risks and options and developing DRM pathways during subsequent pilot meetings.

DAPP-MR

Building on the existing Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach, DAPP-MR is proposed to guide the assessment and evaluation of multiple adaptation pathways to current and future multi-risk challenges. The approach aims to systematically consider the three key themes relevant to the design of multi-risk DRM pathways: (1) the effects of multiple, interacting hazards; (2) the dynamics and interdependencies of sectors; and (3) the trade-offs and synergies of DRM policy options across different sectors and different spatial and temporal scales. It does so by proposing three, iterative stages of the first four steps of the DAPP policy analysis cycle to gradually build up problem complexity:

• Stage 1: DAPP-MR starts with a single-sector, single-hazard perspective.

• Stage 2: Subsequently, all single-hazard considerations are integrated per sector to result in a single-sector, multi-hazard perspective.

• Stage 3: The single-sector, multi-hazard information is integrated into a multi-sector, multi-hazard

DAPP-MR has been applied in a synthetic multi-risk case study to prove its utility. An integrated assessment meta-model was used to quantitatively stress test potential DRM adaptation measures and pathways, with these evaluated according to one or two criteria: pathway robustness across all stages of the analysis, and pathway interdependency across stages 2 and 3. The results highlighted the complexity of assessing the effectiveness of flood and drought risk reduction measures, particularly in the context of multi-hazard interactions. The interactions between different pathways, their timing, and the presence of other sector-hazard DRM measures all play significant roles in determining overall outcomes. However, the staged approach helps to illuminate pathways which remained valid under increasing complexity.