The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Modern civilization is highly dependent on industrial agriculture. Industrial agriculture in turn has become an increasingly complex and globally interconnected system whose historically unprecedented yield relies strongly on external energy inputs in the shape of machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides. This leaves the system vulnerable to disruptions of industrial production and international trade. Several events have the potential to damage electrical infrastructure on a global scale, including electromagnetic pulses caused by solar storms or the detonation of nuclear warheads in the upper atmosphere, a pandemic leading to a significant reluctance to attend their workplaces, as well as a globally coordinated cyber-attack. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of crisis preparation and the establishment of more resilient systems. To improve preparation for high-stake risk scenarios their impact especially on critical supply systems must be better understood. To advance understanding of the implications for the global food system, this work aims to estimate the effect a global curtailment of industrial production could have on crop yields of the major staple crops: corn, rice, soybean, and wheat. We use a generalized linear model to estimate the loss in crop yield based on temperature, moisture, soil characteristics, nitrogen and pesticide application rates, the fraction of irrigated area and mechanization. The model predicts crop yields in two phases following a global catastrophe which inhibits the usage of any electric services. Phase 1 reflects conditions in the year immediately after the catastrophe, assuming the availability of fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel stocks. However, those stocks would be subject to rationed use in the first year. In phase 2, all stocks are used up and artificial fertilizer, pesticides and fuel are not available anymore. The predictions show a reduction in yield of 15 to 37 % in phase 1 and between 35 to 48 % in phase 2 depending on the crop. Soybean is least affected while wheat, rice and corn decline roughly by the same amount. Overall Europe, North and South America and large parts of India, China and Indonesia are projected to face major yield reductions of up to 95% while most African countries are scarcely affected. The findings clearly indicate hotspot regions which align with the level of industrialization of agriculture and highlight the need for preparation.