FP7 HERCULES project
Published May 15, 2014 | Version v1
Preprint Open

Forest and agricultural land change in the Carpathian region. A meta-analysis of long-term patterns and drivers of change

Creators

  • 1. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA
  • 2. Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany; and Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3. Institute of Landscape Ecology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences Bratislava, Branch Nitra, Akademická 2, 949 01 Nitra, Slovakia; and Department of Geography and Regional Development, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Constantine the Philosophers University in Nitra, Trieda A. Hlinku 1, 949 01 Nitra, Slovakia
  • 4. Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany; and Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle (Saale), Germany
  • 5. Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
  • 6. Institute of Landscape Ecology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences Bratislava, Branch Nitra, Akademická 2, 949 01 Nitra, Slovakia
  • 7. Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Kraków, Poland
  • 8. Institute of Geomatics, Forest Opening-up and Water Management, University of West Hungary, Bajcsy-Zs. u. 4, H-9400 Sopron, Hungary
  • 9. Institute of Forest Management and Rural Development, University of West Hungary, PO Box 132, H-9401 Sopron, Hungary
  • 10. Institute of Landscape Ecology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences Bratislava, Branch Nitra, Akademická 2, 949 01 Nitra, Slovakia; and Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
  • 11. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle (Saale), Germany; and Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
  • 12. Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology of the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine
  • 13. Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague 2, Czech Republic
  • 14. Department of Applied and Agricultural Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, 427 Lorch Court, Madison, WI 53706, USA

Description

Humans have altered land cover for centuries, and land-cover change is a main component of global change. Land use transition trajectories, such as the forest transition theory (i.e. switch from deforestation to stable or increasing forest cover), relate long term changes in land use to gradual changes in underlying drivers, such as economic development, demographic change, and urbanization. However, because only few studies examined land change over centuries, it is not clear how land cover changes during very long time-periods which are punctuated by shifts in socio-economics and policies, such as wars. Our goal here was to examine broad land change patterns and processes, and their main driving forces in Central and Eastern Europe during distinct periods of the past 250 years. We conducted a meta-analysis of 66 publications describing 102 case study locations and quantified the main forest and agricultural changes in the Carpathian region since the 18th century. These studies captured gradual changes since the peak of the Austro-Hungarian Empire up to the accession to the European Union of most of the formerly socialist countries in the study region. Agricultural land-use increased during the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 70% of the case studies, but dropped sharply during and especially after the collapse of the Socialism (over 70% of the cases). The highest rates of abandonment occurred between 1990 and 2000. The Carpathian region experienced forest transition during the Interwar period (93% of the cases), and the forest expansion trend persisted after the collapse of Socialism (70% of the cases). In terms of the drivers, institutional and economic factors were most influential in shaping deforestation and agricultural expansion, while socio- demographics and institutional shifts were the key drivers of land abandonment. Our study highlights the drastic effects that socio-economic and institutional changes can have on land-use and land-cover change, and the value of longitudinal studies of land change to uncover these effects.

Notes

This text is a preprint. Please cite as: Munteanu C., T. Kuemmerle, M. Boltiziar, V. Butsic,, U. Gimmi, L. Halada, D. Kaim, G. Király, É. Konkoly-Gyuró, J. Kozak, J. Lieskovský, M. Mojses, D. Müller, K. Ostafin, K. Ostapowicza, O. Shandra, P. Štych, S. Walker, V. C. Radeloff (2014): Forest and agricultural land change in the Carpathian region A meta-analysis of long-term patterns and drivers of change. Land Use Policy 38: 685–697. The original publication is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.01.012.

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Additional details

Funding

VOLANTE – Visions Of LANd use Transitions in Europe 265104
European Commission
HERCULES – Sustainable futures for Europe’s HERitage in CULtural landscapES: Tools for understanding, managing, and protecting landscape functions and values 603447
European Commission