Advancing climate projections for the Adriatic sea. Part II - A case study on Lecce's future coastline

Description

Abstract

The territory of the municipality of Lecce encompasses a 20 km-long coastal strip on the Adriatic sea. In the framework of the new urban masterplan (https://www.puglecce.it/), the local political decision-makers need to assess the vulnerability to sea-level rise of the territory. 

We used a high resolution (1m x 1m) digital terrain model, focussing on the further 9.5 km North on the coast of Lecce. Projections of extreme sea level (ESL, from a global model considering tidal range, storm surge, wave surge and IPCC AR5 mean sea level rise projections) were used in the framework of an enhanced bathtub model. Flood depth maps for ESL were computed in the qGIS software. 

The central and northern parts of the region of interest are the most vulnerable to flooding. Damages to the dune belt, former reclamation canals, and specific roads act as inlets of seawater during flooding events. The modest elevation and gentle slope of the terrain lead to a potential long-range flooding, reaching, after 2080, over 700m from the shoreline for events with centennial return time. The total flooded area encompasses a densely and irregularly urbanized area stretching inland up to the former Torre Rinalda swamp.

Notes

Series information

This is a follow-up of: Mannarini, Salinas, Verri, Santos Da Costa, Barzaghi, "Futura linea di costa leccese - presentazione" (2023), https://zenodo.org/records/8009674

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