SECURES-Energy: Hourly electricity demand and supply profiles for historical climate and climate change projections in Europe until 2100

SECURES-Energy

Weather-dependent renewable electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Electricity generation and demand profiles considering weather and climate impacts are needed in energy system modelling. We present a consistent and high-quality energy database in data formats useful for energy system modelling and keeping the high spatiotemporal complexity of climate data. The open-access dataset SECURES-Energy contains all relevant electricity demand and supply components for the EU and several additional European countries in hourly resolution covering the period 1981-2100. It is based on reanalysis data ERA5(-Land) for the historical period and two EURO-CORDEX emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). On the generation side, impacts on onshore and offshore wind power generation, solar PV generation, and hydropower generation (run-of-river and reservoirs) – which is often missing in comparable datasets – are provided. On the demand side, all demand components relevant to future electricity systems including e-heating, e-cooling, e-mobility, and electricity demand in industry, are provided.

The detailed methods are described in the final project report (see link below) in Chapter 2.2 and Chapter 4.3 and a related journal publication is currently in preparation.

Further information:

• Project website SECURES: https://www.secures.at/
• All project-related publications: https://www.secures.at/publications
• Final SECURES project report: https://www.secures.at/fileadmin/cmc/Final_Report_SECURES.pdf and https://www.klimafonds.gv.at/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/C061007-ACRP12-SECURES-KR19AC0K17532-EB.pdf

The SECURES-Energy dataset provides variables visible in the table.

1. Hourly profiles ERA5-Land 1981-2010
2. Hourly profiles RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5 2011-2100

Production profiles:

Demand profiles:

Electricity supply profiles for wind (onshore and offshore), hydro (run-of-river), and solar generation are provided for almost all European countries, namely: Andorra (AD), Albania (AL), Austria (AT), Bosnia and Herzegovina (BA), Belgium (BE), Bulgaria (BG), Switzerland (CH), Czech Republic (CZ), Germany (DE), Denmark (DK), Estonia (EE), Spain (ES), Finland (FI), France (FR), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (GB), Greece (GR), Croatia (HR), Hungary (HU), Republic of Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Liechtenstein (LI), Lithuania (LT), Luxembourg (LU), Latvia (LV), Montenegro (ME), North Macedonia (MK), Malta (MT), Netherlands (NL), Norway (NO), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), Romania (RO), Serbia (RS), Sweden (SE), Slovenia (SI), Slovakia (SK), San Marino (SM), Ukraine (UA), Vatican (VA), and Kosovo (XK). The countries covered by the electricity demand profiles are the EU27 countries (except for Cyprus), CH, GB, and NO.

Industrial, heating, and cooling demand profiles are based on regressions developed in the H2020 Hotmaps project [1] [2]. 

SECURES-Energy is available in a tabular csv format for the historical period (1981-2010) created from ERA5 and ERA5-Land and two future emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, both 2011-2100) created from one CMIP5 EURO-CORDEX model (GCM:  ICHEC-EC-EARTH, RCM: KNMI-RACMO22E) on the spatial aggregation level NUTS0 (country-wide).

The data is divided into the historical (Historical.zip) and the two emission scenarios (Future_RCP45.zip and Future_RCP85.zip), a README file, which describes, how the files are organized,  and a folder (Meta.zip), which has information and shapefiles of the different NUTS levels.

Hydro reservoir profiles are also published and can be found in the related dataset SECURES-Met: https://zenodo.org/records/7907883.

The project SECURES and corresponding publications are funded by the Climate and Energy Fund (Klima- und Energiefonds) under project number KR19AC0K17532.

[1]     Fallahnejad M. Hotmaps-data-repository-structure 2019. https://wiki.hotmaps.eu/en/Hotmaps-open-data-repositories.

[2]     Pezzutto S, Zambotti S, Croce S, Zambelli P, Garegnani G, Scaramuzzino C, et al. HOTMAPS - D2.3 WP2 Report – Open Data Set for the EU28. 2019.