Published September 12, 2023 | Version v1
Preprint Open

Mid- to long-term capacity planning for a reliable power system in Kenya

  • 1. Ministry of Energy and Petroleum Kenya
  • 2. UCL Energy Institute, University College London
  • 3. Imperial College London
  • 4. Climate Compatible Growth
  • 5. Kenya Power and Lighting Company
  • 6. Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority Kenya
  • 7. Transition Zero


Over the coming decades, Kenya is likely to see a large increase in electricity demand driven by economic growth and wider electrification of different sectors. At the same time, Kenya remains committed to maintain its high share of renewable generation. This study proposes a novel framework to soft link OSeMOSYS, a capacity expansion model (CEM), and FlexTool, a production cost model (PCM), to address the limitations of CEMs in the representation of variable renewable energy sources. Results show the effectiveness of the methodology in identifying critical grid issues that would have been missed by the capacity expansion model alone, especially in the case of a higher penetration of non-dispatchable sources. They also confirm that based on robust planning approaches, Kenya is well placed to maintain its very low carbon generation system under different demand growth projections, leveraging on firm generation from geothermal and high wind potential.



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