Future global green value chains: estimating the renewables pull and understanding its impact on industrial relocation

On the path to climate neutrality, global production and trade of basic materials might change due to the heterogeneous availability of renewable electricity. Here we estimate the “renewables pull”, i.e. the energy-cost savings associated with such relocation, for varying depths of relocation for three key tradable energy-intensive industrial commodities: steel, urea, and ethylene. Assuming an electricity-price difference of 40 EUR/MWh, we find respective relocation savings of 19%, 33%, and 38%, which might, despite soft factors in the private sector, lead to green relocation. Conserving today's production patterns by importing hydrogen is substantially costlier, whereas imports of intermediate products could be almost as cost-efficienct, while keeping substantial value creation in importing regions. A societal debate on macroeconomic, industrial, and geopolitical implications is needed, potentially resulting in selective policies of green-relocation protection.