Climate Progress and the 117th Congress: The Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act

With the close of the 117th Congress in January 2023, REPEAT Project has completed a revised analysis of the climate and energy system impacts of legislation passed during this landmark session. This includes detailed analysis of the combined impacts of H.R. 5376, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and H.R. 3684, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 (IIJA). This report presents REPEAT Project’s revised findings on the impact of these laws on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions trajectory of the United States.

In this analysis, we have updated all assumptions to reflect the latest data available at year-end 20221 and improved the quality of source data and analysis on oil and gas sector methane emissions and abatement opportunities in agriculture and forestry sectors relative to our Preliminary Report on the Inflation Reduction Act released in August, 2022. This revised analysis now includes a range of three Current Policies2 scenarios (‘Conservative’, ‘Mid-range’, and ‘Optimistic’) to better reflect uncertainty about the effectiveness of IRA and IIJA provisions and the potential impacts of constraints on supply chains and other rate-limiting factors.3 This report also presents two benchmark scenarios: a Frozen Policies (Jan. ‘21) scenario which only reflects policies enacted as of the start of the 117th Congress in January 2021; and a Net-Zero Pathway scenario, which reflects a cost-effective pathway to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero by 2050, consistent with President Biden’s climate mitigation goals.

In this report, you will find results for greenhouse gas emissions, clean energy and electric vehicle deployment, fossil energy production and use, and more, along with estimated impacts on energy expenditures, capital investment, energy supply-related employment, air pollution, and public health.

Given the significant uncertainty about future outcomes, all results in this report should be considered approximate. REPEAT Project updates our analysis regularly as new data and inputs become available and new policies are proposed and enacted.

Note that this work has not been subject to formal peer review.