Preview: Final REPEAT Project Findings on the Emissions Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act

With the close of the 117th Congress in January 2023, REPEAT Project has completed a revised, final analysis of the climate and energy system impacts of legislation passed during this landmark session. This includes detailed analysis of the combined impacts of H.R. 5376, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and H.R. 3684, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 (IIJA). This brief report previews REPEAT Project’s final revised findings on the impact of these laws on the greenhouse gas emissions trajectory of the United States.

In this revised analysis, we have updated all assumptions to reflect the latest data available at year-end 20221 and improved the quality of source data and analysis on oil and gas sector methane emissions and abatement opportunities in agriculture and forestry sectors relative to our Preliminary Report on the Inflation Reduction Act released in August, 2022. This revised analysis now includes a range of three Current Policies2 scenarios (‘Conservative’, ‘Mid-range’, and ‘Optimistic’) to better reflect uncertainty about the effectiveness of IRA provisions and the potential impacts of constraints on supply chains and other rate-limiting factors. This report also presents two benchmark scenarios: a Frozen Policies scenario which only reflects policies enacted as of the start of the 117th Congress in January 2021; and a Net-Zero Pathway scenario, which reflects a cost-effective pathway to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero by 2050, consistent with President Biden’s climate mitigation goals.