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Published April 1, 2023 | Version v1
Preprint Open

A brief estimation of deaths in Germany caused by short-term adverse reactions to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

  • 1. FSA GmbH, Erfurt, Germany
  • 2. Universität Stuttgart, Germany
  • 3. Universität Koblenz, Germany


While the efficacy of the newly developed mRNA and vector vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been widely advertised, their harm-to-benefit ratio still remains widely ignored. Though, reports of possible side effects are piling up. The most severe of those side effects is a sudden and unexpected death, with liability issues inducing strong incentives to communicate potentially associated mortalities always aligned with the particular motives and interests. Accordingly, reliable estimates of how many deaths might have been actually
caused by the vaccination are still missing up to date, to the best of our knowledge, in Germany at least. Here, we fill this void and provide such an estimate for Germany during the course of 2021. Thereto, the number of deaths reported by the Paul-Ehrlich-Institut
to have occurred within the group of people suspectedly struck by a vaccine-induced adverse event is scaled by the factor of under-reporting, based on health insurance reports, and finally corrected by known all-cause mortality. Our point estimate for the year 2021 alone reaches a total of 16,817 (short-term) deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Taking independent autopsy reports into account, the estimate of 11,194 deaths is the lower bound. This report may serve as a pivot for further investigations in this matter.




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