UAP Indications Analysis 1945-1975 United States Atomic Warfare Complex

This paper provides an assessment of indicators associated with unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) reports near American military and aerospace facilities and ranks the relative likelihood of the following four intention scenarios: 1) general military survey, 2) atomic weapons survey, 3) atomic warfare prevention and 4) military aggression. This study follows on the work presented in UAP Pattern Recognition Study 1945-1975, US Military Atomic Warfare Complex (Hancock et al., 2023), and is based on the conclusions that intelligent and focused activity was associated with UAP near atomic facilities to a greater degree than near conventional non-atomic military facilities.

The data for this indications analysis include both the original 590 UAP reports and the five study sites in Hancock et al., 2023: 1) atomic materials production, 2) atomic weapons assembly, 3) atomic weapons stockpiles, 4) atomic weapons deployment, and 5) rocket/missile testing and development, plus a further 284 UAP reports that indicated either engaged aircraft, active radar jamming, radio interference in the form of noise on aircraft audio receivers, radar interference / jamming of aircraft receivers, directed radar frequency transmissions mimicking the frequencies used by pilots, coded radar frequency transmissions identification friend or foe; or were observed during missile, rocket, and high-altitude balloon tests, or over military installations. Intention analysis was applied to assess scenarios related to information collection/survey, deterrent/obstruction of military activities, and aggressive engagement. A list of indicators was created, and four major scenarios were considered for assessment. Results indicated that an atomic weapons survey was the most likely scenario. General military survey was the next likely scenario. Atomic warfare prevention and military aggression appeared as the least likely scenarios, in that order; we found little evidence to support prevention or aggression as primary intentions.