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Published January 19, 2023 | Version 1.0.1
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FaIR calibration data

Creators

  • 1. University of Leeds

Description

This dataset contains the full data, input scripts and produced output data for the AR6-consistent calibration of FaIRv2.1.0, using GCP emissions up to 2021.

The zipfile contains everything, including all calibrations performed to date, allowing you to reproduce the workflow.

The CSV file is the output most people will probably care about, containing the constrained, calibrated parameter sets for GCP_2022 (for AR6_updated, see the v1.0 record).

FaIR v2.1.0

Obtainable from https://pypi.org/project/fair/

From the command line:

pip install fair==2.1.0

Calibration v1.0

  • 1.5 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used.
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using calibrations from Smith et al. 2021a (developed for AR6) using 11 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with a prior of -2 to 0 W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with a factor of two uncertainty for each species and a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0.
  • Ozone uses the same coefficeints as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
    Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6.

GCP_2022 (v1.0.1)

  • CO2 FFI and AFOLU emissions are from Global Carbon Project (Friedlingstein et al. 2022), up to and including 2022 which is an estimate.
  • SSP CO2 emissions are harmonized, with 2021 as the harmonization year. So 2022 is the first year in which scenarios may differ.
  • 1001-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions of non-CO2 species, and concentrations are from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6)
  • Temperature from AR6 WG1 (1850-2020, mean of 4 datasets), constrained using ssp245 projections beyond 2014.
  • ssp245 projections for 2081-2100.
  • Ocean heat content from AR6 WG1 (1971-2018), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.16K, then 6-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1

Performance relative to AR6 assessed ranges

  Absolute values     Relative difference w.r.t. AR6    
Metric lower central upper lower central upper
ECS 1.97 3.05 5.08 -2% 2% 2%
TCRE (likely) 1.42 1.72 2.07 42% 4% -10%
TCR 1.33 1.84 2.44 11% 2% 2%
GSAT 1995-2014 rel. 1850-1900 0.70 0.85 1.00 5% 0% 2%
OHC 2018 rel. 1971 (likely) 328.26 400.02 465.45 0% 1% 1%
ERFaer 2005-2014 rel. 1750 -2.02 -1.33 -0.57 1% 3% -5%
WMGHG ERF 2019 rel. 1750 3.04 3.31 3.58 0% 0% -1%
Methane ERF 2019 rel. 1750 0.44 0.55 0.66 2% 2% 2%
AF 2xCO2 (likely) 0.48 0.50 0.51 3% -6% -14%
AF 4xCO2 (likely) 0.52 0.58 0.61 5% -3% -12%
SSP119 2021-2040 rel. 1995-2014 0.38 0.62 0.91 -1% 2% 8%
SSP119 2041-2060 rel. 1995-2014 0.37 0.75 1.22 -9% 6% 14%
SSP119 2081-2100 rel. 1995-2014 0.21 0.62 1.22 -13% 11% 27%
SSP126 2021-2040 rel. 1995-2014 0.40 0.64 0.92 -1% 1% 3%
SSP126 2041-2060 rel. 1995-2014 0.52 0.92 1.39 -3% 4% 5%
SSP126 2081-2100 rel. 1995-2014 0.48 0.97 1.65 -6% 8% 12%
SSP245 2021-2040 rel. 1995-2014 0.46 0.66 0.91 4% -1% 1%
SSP245 2041-2060 rel. 1995-2014 0.78 1.13 1.54 0% 1% -2%
SSP245 2081-2100 rel. 1995-2014 1.19 1.83 2.65 -4% 1% 2%
SSP370 2021-2040 rel. 1995-2014 0.46 0.64 0.86 1% -4% -6%
SSP370 2041-2060 rel. 1995-2014 0.90 1.20 1.58 -2% -6% -10%
SSP370 2081-2100 rel. 1995-2014 1.96 2.60 3.45 -2% -6% -8%
SSP585 2021-2040 rel. 1995-2014 0.51 0.72 0.99 0% -5% -5%
SSP585 2041-2060 rel. 1995-2014 1.05 1.46 1.96 -3% -5% -6%
SSP585 2081-2100 rel. 1995-2014 2.49 3.48 4.69 2% -1% -3%

*likely (66%) ranges, otherwise very likely (95%) ranges.

References

Files

calibrated_constrained_parameters.csv

Files (7.2 GB)

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Additional details

Funding

UK Research and Innovation
From emissions to climate impacts and back again NE/T009381/1