Projections of the Timing of Decreasing Coastal Flood Protection

This data set contains projections of the timing of decreasing coastal flood protection (i.e., projections of the timing of frequency amplifications of estimated flood protection standards) associated with Hermans et al. (in revision), The Timing of Decreasing Coastal Flood Protection Due to Sea-Level Rise. It contains the output of extreme value analysis of high-frequency GESLA3 tide gauge observations (daily maxima, generalized Pareto distribution fits and return curves), total AR6 sea-level projections interpolated to GESLA3 tide gauge locations, and the required sea-level rise for and the timing of frequency amplifications relative to estimated coastal flood protection standards (FLOPROS) or to the historical centennial event. Results are included for both automatically selected extremes thresholds and for a constant threshold of 98.8% at all locations.

The manuscript that this data accompanies can be found at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01616-5.

The code used to produce this data can be found at https://github.com/Timh37/TimingAFs.

Required Acknowledgements and Citations

Users of this dataset are asked to cite:

• The manuscript that this dataset accompanies: Hermans, T.H.J., Malagón-Santos, V., Katsman, C.A. et al. The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 359–366 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5
• Garner, G. G., T.H.J. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Global Mean Sea-Level Rise Projections. Version 20210809. Dataset accessed [YYYY-MM-DD] at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914709
• Tiggeloven, T., de Moel, H., Winsemius, H. C., Eilander, D., Erkens, G., Gebremedhin, E., Diaz Loaiza, A., Kuzma, S., Luo, T., Iceland, C., Bouwman, A., van Huijstee, J., Ligtvoet, W., and Ward, P. J.: Global-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measures, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, 2020

R.E.K. was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub (MACH) under NSF award ICER-2103754. T.H.J.H., V.M.-S. and A.B.A.S. were supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number TBD.