THE MARITIME BORDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN LEBANON AND ISRAEL AND THE ENERGY DYNAMICS IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

On October 27^th, 2022, Lebanon and Israel reached an understanding regarding their disputed maritime borders. The agreement, brokered by the United States of America, has been treated as "historic" by most media outlets because its initiative as an economic dialogue between two warring countries without the prior need for a peace settlement. The new division of the maritime area into two mutually agreed Exclusive Economic Zones unveiled new opportunities for oil and natural gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Hence, the Levantine Basin gained notoriety not only for the potential of its reserves, but also due to the geopolitical moment of energy scarcity that most of the adjacent states are going through. Noting the sharp inflation of the Lebanese economy since 2015, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict since early 2022, the Israeli political instability since 2017, and the strategic repositioning of the United States after the resurgence of the Taliban in 2021, the energy issue has become a priority for these countries seeking to survive a politically and economically troubled global conjuncture.

Despite the optimism of states and oil companies, the current international context did not seem to favor an understanding along the lines of the Lebanese-Israeli one. For that matter, the agreement still has weaknesses and institutional loopholes that could rapidly shorten its validity. At the same time, despite the reductionist analyses that condemn the region to be a constant breeding ground for conflict, the agreement has enabled an equally unexpected degree of satisfaction and compliance between both Israeli and Lebanese authorities on economic issues of common interest. As such, its nature and prospects are still uncertain and dependent on a myriad of yet unknown behavioral variables. However, there is a conjuncture that explains why this agreement was possible, even against trends and anticipations.