Published November 9, 2022 | Version 1.1
Dataset Restricted

AR6 Scenarios Database

  • 1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 3. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
  • 4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
  • 5. Imperial College London
  • 6. Climate & Energy College, University of Melbourne; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 7. CICERO Center for International Climate Research
  • 8. University of Leeds
  • 9. Universiteit Utrecht
  • 10. CIRED, AgroParisTech
  • 11. OpenEXP
  • 12. Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • 13. University of Cape Town
  • 14. Netherlands Environment Agency
  • 15. Paris School of Economics
  • 16. Climate Resource, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 17. Politecnico di Milano; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
  • 18. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • 19. CIRED, Ecole des Ponts
  • 20. Ritsumeikan University
  • 21. University of Melbourne
  • 22. Imperial College London, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 23. University of Lausanne
  • 24. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment

Description

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA.<<< click here.

As part of the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6), authors from Working Group III on Mitigation of Climate Change undertook a comprehensive exercise to collect and assess quantitative, model-based scenarios related to the mitigation of climate change.

Building on previous assessments, such as those undertaken for the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the calls for AR6 for scenarios have been expanded and includes economy-wide GHG emissions, energy, and sectoral scenarios from global to national scales, thus more broadly supporting the assessment across multiple chapters (see Annex III, Part 2 of the WGIII report for more details).

The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC AR6 report, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a cooperation agreement with Working Group III of the IPCC. The scenario ensemble contains 3,131 quantitative scenarios with data on socio-economic development, greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral transformations across energy, land use, transportation, buildings and industry. These scenarios derive from 191 unique modelling frameworks, 95+ model families that are either globally comprehensive, national, multi-regional or sectoral.

The criteria for submission included that the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than October 11th, 2021, or published in a report determined by the IPCC WG III Bureau to be eligible grey literature by the same date. The AR6 scenario database is documented in Annex III.2 of the Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group III. For the purpose of the assessment, scenarios have been grouped in various categories relating to, among other things, climate outcomes, overshoot, technology availability and policy assumptions.

For ease of use, the database is provided as multiple files:

Filename Description Region coverage Uncompressed Size (MB)
Standard files for assessment      
AR6_Scenarios_Database_World_v1.1.csv All data reported for the World region, primarily from integrated assessment models (IAMs), as well as variables from the climate assessment  World only 353
AR6_Scenarios_Database_R5_regions_v1.1.csv All data reported and aggregated to R5 regions, primarily from IAMs. 5 global regions 847
AR6_Scenarios_Database_R6_regions_v1.1.csv All data reported and aggregated to R6 regions (as preferred by IPCC), primarily from IAMs. 6 global regions 408
AR6_Scenarios_Database_R10_regions_v1.1.csv All data reported and aggregated to R10 regions, primarily from IAMs. 10 global regions 1,266
AR6_Scenarios_Database_ISO3_v1.1.csv Ass data reported at the country level, primarily from national integrated assessment and energy systems models, but also IAMs for major countries. Country level 1,155
AR6_Scenarios_Database_metadata_indicators_v1.1.xlsx Wide range of categorical and numerical indicators calculated for each model-scenario. Primarily world data 3
Additional "climate assessment" files New in v1.1    
AR6_Scenarios_Database_World_ALL_CLIMATE_v1.1.csv Same as World snapshot above, but with all the climate assessment data for MAGICC and FaIR models included World only 3,006
AR6_Climate_Diagnostics_CICERO-SCM_v1.1.csv Climate assessment data for the CICERO-SCM model World only 743
AR6_Climate_Diagnostics_metadata_indicators_v1.1.xlsx Full set of categorical and numerical indicators relating to the climate assessment, calculated for each model-scenario World only 2
AR6_historical_emissions.csv Historical CO2 and GHGs for world region used in climate assessment World only 0.01

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and science communication, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

In addition to the data you may find more relevant information and cite one of the relevant chapters of the WG III report.

If working with global or regional (R6, R10) data:

If working with national data (ISO region data):

If you find the metadata files particularly useful:

Scenarios data also supports analysis in the Summary for Policy Makers, Technical Summary and Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12 and 15.

Climate assessment of global emissions pathways

The climate assessment of the long-term global emissions scenarios was undertaken as part of the Chapter 3 assessment. The workflow is available at https://github.com/iiasa/climate-assessment and published in Kikstra et al. 2022. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures. Geoscientific Model Development https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-471. Scripts for this assessment are at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7304736 

For these purposes, the full climate assessment data is provided, as documented in the table above.

Release notes for v1.1

Following feedback and identification of some issues between the versions available to authors in preparation of the published report and the v1.0 public release, updates are made to v1.1.
Changes made here are made with the intention of facilitating and improving the reproducibility of the IPCC report. There are no resulting corrections to the report and its findings, as these issues were identified by authors and manually addressed. Full list of release notes is published on the Downloads page https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/#/downloads 

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA.<<< click here.

Files

Restricted

The record is publicly accessible, but files are restricted to users with access.

Request access

If you would like to request access to these files, please fill out the form below.

You need to satisfy these conditions in order for this request to be accepted:

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by IIASA under a license which permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and science communication, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data.

We are committed to making the scenario ensemble available as widely as possible, and to encourage broad use of  the data for research, science communication and policy analysis in the context of climate change mitigation and sustainable development. We want to facilitate the dialogue on pathways at the interface between science and policy, and we aim to support a better understanding of the scientific basis of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report by releasing this scenario ensemble.

Nevertheless, we anticipate updates of the scenario ensemble. This may be either due to adding more detailed information to available scenarios in response to user requests, or because of reporting issues identified after the release that need to be corrected. While we did take the utmost care to validate all submitted data, such issues can never be fully avoided.

For this reason, downloads of scenario data are routed through the AR6 Scenario Explorer, unless the data is made available in relation to a specific figure in a publication or online visualization tool, for example as supplementary material to a manuscript published in a scientific journal.

Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

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Additional details

Related works

Is cited by
Journal article: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-471 (DOI)
Is required by
Software: 10.5281/zenodo.7304736 (DOI)

Funding

ENGAGE – Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions 821471
European Commission