THE PATTERN OF RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION IN AUSTRALIA IN 2036

The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary forecast of religious affiliations in Australia. The forecast is made on the basis of religious affiliation at five-year intervals in the Census of Population and Housing from 1971-2021. A simple linear regression is used and confidence intervals calculated. Results indicated that by 2036, Christians would comprise around 40.3% of the population (95%CI [33.8, 46.8]); those with No Religion would comprise around 40.7% (95%CI [33.4, 48.0]); and Other Religions would comprise 14.8% (95%CI [11.8, 17.8]). The results suggest changes in the religious landscape of the population that will most likely affect the national mindset.