De-Risking the Energy Efficient Renovation of Commercial Office Buildings through Technical-Financial Risk Assessment

Energy efficiency in the building sector plays a key role in supporting European and global commitments against the current climate crisis. A massive adoption of deep renovation measures would allow a global reduction of energy need up to 36%, based on estimations. However, the market for building renovation is still limited, due to uncertainties associated with risk evaluation. This paper aims to suggest a method to evaluate the financial impacts of technical risks related to energy efficiency investments. Key performance indicators (KPIs) necessary to evaluate the investment risk associated with energy renovation have been defined based on an analysis of the correlation between technical and financial risks, and their originating factors or root causes. The evaluation has been carried out thanks to the EEnvest tool: a web-based search and match platform, developed within the EEnvest collaborative research project funded by the European Commission (EC). This evaluation methodology has then been applied to a case study, an office building located in Rome, for whom an energy efficient renovation project was already in place to reduce energy needs. The investment risk of the renovation project is calculated for two different scenarios: with and without risk mitigation measures being applied during the design, installation and operation phases. The results show the different technical and financial risk trends of these two scenarios, highlighting the benefits obtained by the implementation of mitigation measures.