Large Ensemble Dataset for Discovering Global Peak Water Limit of Future Groundwater Withdrawals Using 900 GCAM Runs

Global Groundwater Withdrawals Peak Over the 21st Century 

The large ensemble dataset contains groundwater related model outputs from 900 scenarios modeled using Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The scenario ensemble members include five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five global climate model outputs, three groundwater depletion limits, two surface water storage expansion regimes, and two historical groundwater depletion trends.

Journal Article

Niazi, H., Wild, T.B., Turner, S.W.D., Graham, N.T., Hejazi, M., Msangi, S., Kim, S., Lamontagne, J.R., & Zhao, M. (2024). Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals. Nature Sustainability, 7(4), 413–422. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01306-w

Read full-text here: https://rdcu.be/dFpb5 

Data Repository 

This data repository is to be used in combination with the main meta-repository containing all scripts and files for reproducing the experiment as well as the analysis and post-processing of the model outputs.

Scripts and smaller files are provided in the GitHub meta-repository whereas larger files are provided in this data repository. Please complete the repository by placing the files as described hereunder. Please find the GitHub meta-repository here: https://github.com/JGCRI/niazi-etal_2024_nature-sustainability

Descriptions of files:

1. gcam-5.7z contains the GCAM version used to simulate 900 scenarios of plausible futures. The model folder contains all necessary input files to reproduce the simulations.
   • The model is to be used in combination with the meta-repository to setup batch runs on cluster.
   • Please navigate to model/ folder for other scenario-specific and model setup folders and files. gcam-5 is to be extracted in the same directory (./model/gcam-5/). 
   • For the first-time users of GCAM, please follow guidance on GCAM wiki to setup GCAM or for background knowledge. 
2. crop_yeild.7z: This file contains inputs related to climate impacts on crop yields. This is to be downloaded and extracted in the model/combined_impacts/ folder. 
3. outputs-all.7z: Key model outputs queried and collated from 900 GCAM runs are explained hereunder. The files could be downloaded individually (.csv files) or all at once in .7z format (outputs-all.7z). These files are to be placed in the model/outputs folder of the meta-repository. 
   • ag_prod_all_GW_scenarios.csv - Agricultural production across all scenario for 2050 and 2100 (tonnes)
   • prices_water_withdrawal_all.csv - Water prices across all scenarios and years ($/km³)
   • global_irrigated_prod_by_crop.csv - All irrigated agricultural production for each crop across and scenarios all years (tonnes)
   • surface_water_production_all.csv - Runoff across all scenarios and years (km³)
   • groundwater_production_FINAL.csv - Groundwater withdrawals across all scenarios and years (km³)
   • water_withdrawals_desal_all.csv - Water withdrawals from desalination plants across all scenarios and years (km³)

Short introduction to the study

Using 900 GCAM runs, this study finds that global groundwater withdrawals are expected to peak around mid-century, followed by a decline through 21st century, exposing about half of the population living in one-third of basins to groundwater stress, with cost and availability of surface water storage being the most significant driver of future groundwater withdrawals. This first-ever robust, quantitative confirmation of the peak-and-decline pattern for groundwater, previously only known for fossil fuels and minerals, raises concerns for basins heavily dependent on groundwater.

Niazi, H., Wild, T.B., Turner, S.W.D., Graham, N.T., Hejazi, M., Msangi, S., Kim, S., Lamontagne, J.R., & Zhao, M. (2024). Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals. Nature Sustainability, 7(4), 413–422. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01306-w

Read full-text here: https://rdcu.be/dFpb5

Contact 

Please reach out to Hassan Niazi at hassan.niazi@pnnl.gov for any questions.