Distribution patterns of invasive buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris) in Mexico estimated with climate niche models under the current and future climate

This repository contains the files associated with the following article:

Pablo Siller-Clavel, Ernesto Iván Badano, Federico Villarreal-Guerrero, Jesús A. Prieto-Amparan, Alfredo Pinedo-Álvarez, Raúl Corrales-Lerma, Alan Álvarez-Holguín, Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz. Distribution patterns of invasive buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris) in Mexico estimated with climate niche models under the current and future climate. Submitted to Journal Plants

Supplementary material 01 is an excel file that contain the information that supports the analyses performed in the study. This file contains three spreadsheets. The first spreadsheet shows the occurrence data (latitude and longitude coordinates, in decimal degrees) used to calibrate the climate niche model (CNM) of buffelgrass and the current values of the 19 bioclimatic variables associated to each of these coordinates (obtained from the WorldClim geodatabases; available at https://www.worldclim.org). A table with values of the Spearman correlation coefficients used to select bioclimatic variables for the CNM are provided on the side of this dataset. In this table, bioclimatic variables included in the model are indicated in green. The second spreadsheet shows the current occurrence probabilities of the species at each occurrence point, which were estimated with the CNM calibrated under the current climate. The table on the side of this dataset shows the fraction of presences dropping at the different probability deciles. The third spreadsheet shows the ten-thousand random geographic coordinates used to assess potential shifts in the distribution of buffelgrass due to climate change. At each geographic coordinate, the dataset shows the occurrence probability of the species under the current climate and at the climate change scenarios that resulted from combining time periods (2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) and radiative forcing levels of the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP-2.6, SSP-4.5, SSP-7.0 and SSP-8.5).

Supplementary material 02 is a compressed Keyhole Markup Language file (*.kmz) with maps that can be visualized in Google Earth. To visualize the maps contained in this file, we recommend installing the latest desktop version of the software (available at https://www.google.com/intl/en_uk/earth/versions) in a computer meeting the following requirements: CPU Intel Core i5 9^th generation or equivalent, CPU clock speed 1.8 GHz, random access memory (RAM) 8 GB, and video random access memory (VRAM) 1 GB. The file contains a folder labelled as “Current climate” with a map illustrating the distribution of occurrence probabilities of buffelgrass in Mexico estimated with the CNM under the current climate; check the box on the side of the folder for visualizing the map. The other folders are levelled with the different time periods on which the CNM was projected (2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100) and within these folders are the maps for the radiative forcing levels associated to different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP-2.6, SSP-4.5, SSP-7.0 and SSP-8.5); click on the arrow on the left of folders to expand them and check the box on the side of each folder for visualizing the respective map. All maps are provided at a spatial resolution of 2.5 arcmin (~21 km² per pixel) and they are composed by three layers that indicate habitats climatically unsuitable for buffelgrass (map pixels with occurrence probabilities below 0.1), habitats that offer moderately suitable climatic conditions for buffelgrass (map pixels with occurrence probabilities between 0.1 and 0.5) and habitats that offer highly suitable climatic conditions for buffelgrass (map pixels with occurrence probabilities above 0.5). The surface area of each of these layers (in km²) is provided clicking on them. Folders of future time periods also contain the output of the multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis corresponding to each SSP. MESS outputs are maps with two layers, where positive values indicate sites where climate will be suitable for buffelgrass and negative values indicate sites that will become climatically unsuitable for the species.

This work was supported by Programa de Mejoramiento del Profesorado (PROMEP), grant UACH-EXB-250 to NSHQ, and Fondo Sectorial de Investigación Ambiental SEMARNAT-CONACYT, grant FSSEMARNAT01-C-2018-1-A3-S-80837 to EIB