Interpretive policy analysis of responses to urban shrinkage and depopulation: tracing change beyond the rational planning tradition

Urban shrinkage represents a complex phenomenon that might have demographic, spatial, economic and social dimensions in cities (Martinez-Fernandez et al. 2012). It is often experienced as a crisis with a variety of effects which differ significantly across various contexts. Its manifestations create a challenge for policy makers and planning practitioners, thus it represents a challenge for planning cultures (Pallagst 2010). Previous research has suggested that a potential alternative planning approach to urban shrinkage could be “Shrinking Smart” - a planning concept that represents a possible paradigm shift in planning under the conditions of shrinkage (Wiechmann and Pallagst 2012). At the same time, however, the academic debate on this idea has focused mostly on spatial solutions and separate approaches to the physical manifestations of shrinkage (Popper and Popper 2017), thus subordinating the debate only to the realm of physical planning . This aligns with the rationalistic and rather positivist tradition in planning science (Batty 2018).

In order to respond to this gap, this paper, part of a wider research, introduces a post-positivist methodological orientation to planning research. Following the arguments by Fischer (2003) Stone (2002) and Rein and Schön (1996), an interpretive policy analysis method is constructed, focusing on the identification of frames, stories and normative leaps. The method is applied to the policy and planning approaches to urban shrinkage, utilized in Bilbao (Spain) and Leipzig (Germany) between 2000 and 2015, as well as to regional depopulation policies in the province of Zeeland (the Netherlands) after 2010. By introducing an interpretivist methodological approach, the understanding of urban shrinkage is expanded from simple spatial challenge for urban planners, to a policy challenge and a multidimensional phenomenon. From this perspective, the issue becomes an object not only of traditional planning approaches, but also an object of policies, which are guided by possible policy paradigms (Hall 1993). Respectively, in order to investigate the possibilities of paradigm shift, following both Kuhn and Hall, a focus on the possible change of frames, interpretations, justifications and normative formulations is necessary.

By critically analyzing the constellation of policies and plans utilized in the selected cases via interpretive policy analysis, this work attempts to expose the underlying ideas behind those policy and planning practices and thus to contribute to the debate of possible paradigm shifts in the context of urban shrinkage. From methodological standpoint, the construction and application of interpretive policy analysis in the field of planning research, and particularly for the topic of urban shrinkage, brings a constructivist and ideational perspective and can thus contribute to expanding the field beyond its traditional rationalistic inclinations.