Young children's identifications of the most and least likely outcomes of experiments

The aim of this study was to investigate the probabilistic thinking of young children, focusing in particular on the judgements that influence their identifications of the most and least likely outcomes of experiments. Research studies present conflicting results pertaining to young children’s potential to engage in probabilistic thinking and a wide variance exists across international mathematics curricula regarding the age at which children receive formal probabilistic instruction. At present, young children in Ireland are not formally introduced to probability until Third class when they are approximately 8 or 9 years old. In this study, the probabilistic thinking of 16 children aged 5-6 years was examined using task-based group interviews. The results suggest that young children are capable of engaging in sophisticated probabilistic thinking and highlights that the current practice of formally introducing children to probability in Third class warrants further investigation.