Improving the prisoner's dilemma model and using it to develop trade policy strategies and tactics in hybrid wars

The subject of research is the model of international trade and state economic policy, its improvement
and use for development of strategy and tactics of the trade policy in the conditions of hybrid wars.
The аim of the article is to improve and use the conflict model «prisoner’s dilemma» for the state trade
policy, options for strategic behavior in international trade conflicts in the global context of the trade wars.

Research methodology – the method of modeling and game theory was used to improve the model
of state trade policy; method of analysis of options for strategic behavior of the state and its trade and
economic policy.
Results of research. It is proposed to improve the model of the state trade policy and the formation
of trade policy strategies, which explains the internal logic of the development of the state strategic
behavior; the variants of the strategic trade policy of the state in the conditions of hybrid economic
wars are defined and analyzed.
Application of results – economic sector: management of the national economy, international trade,
international economic relations. The results of the study will allow working out recommendations for the
development and definition of a national strategy for trade and economic policy in the context of hybrid
economic wars. The global prospect of increasing the number of trade and economic wars between
developed countries makes it important to develop their own strategy of trade and economic policy.
Conclusions. The developed conflict model of strategic behavior of states (trade policy) allows to
define and explain risky (often not clear) interactions in the aggressive external environment. The
development of a countermeasures strategy is always influenced by two players, the presence of an
opponent, third parties, an arbitrator who is partially interested in small local conflicts in order to save
the planet and play the role of the «world peacemaker»). The development of a complex trade policy
(strategy, tactics in a multilevel system is the only correct way to preserve and develop the state in
uncertain conditions of hybrid economic wars, where all states at all levels «fight» (or potentially fight
– economically, trade) against all.
The conflict model shows the best way to use opportunities and resources. In trade, they are looking
for a niche where competition is least («egoist» strategies often use unfair competition, economic
espionage), the military is looking for favorable conditions for a strike (state «terrorism», sabotage,
often disguised as «democratic choice of the people»). The strategy allows us to see not only the goal,
but also rational ways to achieve it, as systematic as possible, expanding the set of «working» factors.