Quantitative Story Telling of shale gas extraction scenarios in the EU. MAGIC (H2020–GA 689669) Project Deliverable 6.5.

The European 2030 Climate and Energy strategy marks the effort of the EU to implement the Paris Agreement commitments. To that end, most member states plan to increase the share of renewable energy and natural gas in the energy mix. However, the deterioration of the relations with Russia, the closure of the conventional gas field in Groningen, and the Brexit challenge natural gas supply within the EU. In this report we study the potential of a European shale gas sector as alternative to ensure natural gas supply.

The shale gas revolution that happened in the USA around the mid-2000s instigated a general wave of optimism about the potential of natural gas to become the main fuel for “clean” heating, power generation and transport. The premise that despite its environmental impacts and financial burden, shale gas extraction is a strategic national-security issue was maintained in the USA until gas prices sank in 2014. As of 2020 the first public voices demanding a ban can be heard in the US.

There is a vast literature that assess the impacts of shale gas development and hydraulic fracturing over the environment, the people and the local and national economies. However, their recommendations tend to be discordant. This type of assessments can greatly benefit from a transdisciplinary analysis. In this report, we use Quantitative Story-Telling (QST, see section Materials and Methods for further information about QST), an iterative technique that combines narrative analysis with multi-scale integrated assessment.

The narrative assessment considered the evolution of the informal narrative (for the general public) against the difference between gas extraction cost and market prices. The informal narrative greatly influences the formal narrative of the European Commission, which was assessed with an analysis of legal text and a round of interviews.

We assessed the socio-economic viability and the environmental feasibility to meet the EU natural gas demand in a situation of challenged supply by developing a shale gas sector in the EU. More concretely, we check whether an hypothetical shale gas sector could “contribute almost half of the EU’s total gas production and meet about around 10 % of the EU gas demand by 2035” (COM2014/23 final page 4) while contributing to reduce GHG emissions and without contradicting the principles of the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC).

We concluded that:

• Shale gas net extraction (raw extraction minus energy use) would not be enough to meet EU needs.
• Some member states would be able to cover their needs with domestic extraction but current legislative framework give them freedom to sell their overflow out of Europe, thus not contributing to EU energy security.
• Due to the lowering of the gas prices, a fairly big high of wells will not cover their construction and maintenance economic expensive
• Methane emissions will be higher than for the extraction of conventional gas. Most of those emissions would come from wells that are not providing a surplus of energy.

There are a few river basins that might not be able to meet the WFD commitments for the third review period. Most of the water use comes from the less productive or even unproductive wells.