CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE AQUACULTURE SECTOR FOR EUROPEAN ISLANDS

According to the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the warming of the climate system is unequivocal and continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system. This increases the likelihood of severe and irreversible environmental impacts, which can induce large socio-economic damage. In order to create new policies on adaption, policy makers must have detailed and accurate information about likely impact chains and about the costs and benefits of possible resilience strategies corresponding to the potential decarbonisation pathways. 

The SOCLIMPACT project aims at modelling and assessing downscaled Climate Change impacts and low carbon transition pathways in European islands and archipelagos for 2030-2100, complementing current available projections for Europe, and nourishing actual economic models with non-market assessment. The project is developing a thorough understanding on how Climate Change will impact the particularly vulnerable EU islands located in different regions and focuses on Blue Growth sectors. One of the fast-growing Blue Growth sectors is aquaculture. Aquaculture accounts for 20% of the fish production in Europe. Climate change impacts and risks for the marine aquaculture sector on the islands were identified based on climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability factors such as sensitivity and adaptive capacity. 

The main risks for marine cage aquaculture identified are: 

• • Change in production due to changes in seawater characteristics and temperature 
• • Increased fragility of the aquaculture activity due to extreme events 
• • Increased environmental pollution from aquaculture sites due to changes in coastal hydrodynamics 

Impact chains for these risks have been developed and operationalised to identify the major risks and finally enable the comparison between different islands. These results facilitate the development of adaption strategies and support policy strategy and capacity building.