Published September 10, 2020 | Version v1
Preprint Open

Looking for the bioclimatic envelopes of SARS CoV-2: if any, here be dragons

  • 1. University of Malaga
  • 2. Institute of Natural Resources and Agrobiology of Seville (IRNAS). Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)

Description

On old maps, the expression ‘Here be dragons’ (from the Latin, Hic sunt dracones) indicated that which lay beyond the world as it was known, and they often showed fantastical creatures (e.g., dragons) that served as indicators of the limits of our knowledge. As such, this means that unexplored territories are potentially dangerous. In this paper, we address the uncertainties about the spread of the COVID-19 disease and the limitations of bioclimatic envelopes in the geographical distribution of SARS CoV-2. We discuss some key points paramount to understanding the research problem posed to the geographical distribution and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Namely, SARS CoV-2 vs. COVID-19, weather vs. climate, and models vs. anthroposphere. Concerning the influence of atmospheric conditions (and other candidate drivers) on the disease distribution, we hypothesise that extrapolations in space-time do not add explanatory power to future scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since atmospheric conditions may only explain a very limited amount of the space-time dynamics of SARS CoV-2, until we find the bioclimatic envelopes of SARS CoV-2, if any, here be dragons.

Notes

This is an early version of "Oliver Gutiérrez-Hernández, & Luis V. García. (2021). On the usefulness of the bioclimatic correlative models of SARS-CoV-2. Environmental Research, 195(2021), 110818. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110818"

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