The changes of climate may threat the production of Grana Padano cheese: past, recent and future scenarios

Climate and animal agriculture are interrelated processes and related foods may be threatened
through changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events. The present study was
aimed to investigate the climate trend over the production area of Grana Padano (GP) cheese.
The area is in North of Italy, covers a total land of 46,000km2 and it is highly suited for agricultural
and livestock productions. Past (1971–2000), recent (2001–2010) and future (2020–2050) climate
scenarios were considered and compared. The analysis showed positive anomalies both
for minimum and maximum temperatures and a decrease of precipitation for recent and future
climate. The Gaussen-Bagnouls classification pointed out a change from humid to semi-humid
climate during summer months. These data suggest a warming trend and increasing risk of
summer aridity over the production area of GP cheese. The analysis of temperature-humidity
index (THI), from past throughout the future scenario, highlighted an increased risk of heat
stress for dairy cows. The worst THI condition was predicted for July of the future scenario
when milk loss may reach a level of 7 kg/cow/day. The changes in climate may threat the potential
to produce GP cheese, indirectly by the negative effect of precipitation deficit on crops yield
for cows feeding, directly by the increase of heat stress-related milk loss. These findings may be
of help to animate the debate on climate change-related impacts on regional food systems and
support policymakers in developing adaptation strategies for the production system of
GP cheese.