Forecast of COVID19 infections, ITALY

Coronavirus Disease Research Community – COVID-19
ZENODO CERN, May 11th, 2020
Publication date: May 10rd, 2020
Title: Forecast of COVID19 infections, ITALY
Author: Gori Fabio, University of Rome Tor Vergata
ORCID 0000-0002-3927-2834

I have updated the COVID19 infections in Italy on May 10th, publishing the graphs on the following free
blogs:
https://covid19forecast.blogspot.com/
https://eucovid19.blogspot.com/
https://forbigaio.blogspot.com/
The same figures are reported here.

The main conclusions of this analysis of forecast, with the Verhulst logistic equation are:

- The decrease of the total infections, still in progress, forecasted after the maximum of April 20th, is
confirmed.
- The decrease of the new infections, forecasted at the beginning of April, is confirmed.
- The decrease of the new deaths, forecasted at the beginning of April, is confirmed
The main use of these analyses are:
An eventual increase of the total and new infections and of the new deaths, can be promptly
monitored by the employment of this approach.