Monte-Carlo simulation of dike stability based on a coupled steady-state hydro-stability model

With a large network of dikes that in the future will protect up to 15% of the worlds population from flooding, more extreme river discharges that result from climate change will dramatically increase the flood risk of these protected societies. Precise calculations of dike stability under adverse loading conditions will become increasingly important, though the hydrological impacts on dike stability, particularly the effects of groundwater flow, are often oversimplified in stability calculations. In order to better take account of groundwater flow processes, we use a coupled hydro-stability model to indicate relations between the geometry, subsurface materials, groundwater hydrology and stability of a dike. To calculate the stability, the most adverse drained loading conditions are applied to soil slip and basal sliding mechanisms. A database created by an extensive Monte Carlo analysis provides evidence for relations between geometry, material characteristics, hydrology and stability for three different failure processes.  The database contains the parameter combinations that resulted in a stability factor (F) closest to the critical conditon, e.g. closest to F=1. The database can be used to estimate failure probabilities for dike stretches that have not been assessed in detail, while including the uncertainties caused by a lack of in-situ data.