There is a newer version of the record available.

Published March 26, 2024 | Version v1.2
Working paper Open

Canada's Fair Share of 1.5 °C-Consistent Global Mitigation Through 2035

  • 1. Climate Equity Reference Project

Description

This technical report serves to outline the methodological and normative-ethical choices taken by members of Climate Action Network Canada – Réseau action climat Canada (CAN-Rac) in deriving their current position on Canada’s fair share through 2035 towards a global mitigation effort consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C, based on the findings of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6). It also outlines the methodology applied and the results obtained. 

Their work concluded that Canada’s total fair share of a 1.5 °C-consistent global mitigation effort is equivalent to a 160 % reduction in emissions below 2005 levels
by 2035, when accounting for Canada’s shortfall over the post-Paris period 2016-2023 between its actual emissions and its previously calculated fair share (a total shortfall of 1,180 MtCO2eq).

Utilizing the analysis of the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emission scenario, implies a domestic reduction of 73 % below 2005 levels in 2035.Applying a portion of Canada’s post-Paris shortfall to this figured increases it to a total domestic reduction of 80% below 2005 levels in 2035.

The gap between the 160 % total fair share and the 80 % domestic portion constitutes the international portion of Canada’s total fair share. Expressed as climate finance contribution for mitigation, the international portion of Canada’s fair share implies, in 2025, an annual climate finance contribution for mitigation of USD 19billion(CAD 25bn). This amount increases to USD 64billion(CAD 86bn) per year by 2035, for an average of USD 43billion(CAD 58bn) per year during the 2025-2035 period.

Files

Holz - 2024 - Canada's Fair Share of 1.5°C-consistent Global Mitigation Through 2035.pdf