FOCCUS WP9 D9.1 Application Demonstrator: ESC1 - 2.1.2.1 - Coastal erosion dynamics assessment of the Mediterranean Sea (Northern Adriatic Sea)

The demonstrator is called MARE - Morphodynamic Assessment of the (northern) Adriatic REgion - and illustrates how Copernicus Marine products (MED-MFC physics and waves), downscaled through the MSCS, together with improved river inputs from the land-ocean continuum components, can be used to support coastal erosion risk assessment, coastal planning and hazard mitigation along the Emilia-Romagna coast. MARE is conceived as a service rather than a model output repository: it turns the coupled model fields into erosion risk information that coastal stakeholders can consult and query directly for their own stretch of coast.

Demonstrator Description:

This demonstrator presents the coupled wave-circulation-sediment modelling framework developed at CMCC for the Northern Adriatic Sea, and the erosion-relevant indicators derived from it. It includes model results, processed model output, validation figures and maps, and workflow documentation, and demonstrates the application of the MSCS coupled system (SHYFEM-MPI circulation model two-way coupled with WAVEWATCH III, extended with a sediment transport module) for the identification and evaluation of coastal erosion processes in the Northern Adriatic, with a particular focus on the Emilia-Romagna region, an area frequently impacted by extreme events driving erosion and coastal flooding. The information is delivered through an interactive interface, so that users can navigate the indicator maps, extract time series at a location of interest and obtain statistics on demand for a selected area, without requiring modelling expertise.

Application definition. The application covers the Northern Adriatic Sea on an unstructured grid with horizontal resolution ranging from ~1.5 km in the open sea to ~50 m along the coast. The simulation covers a one-year period (2019) and provides the fields relevant to erosion: current fields, bottom shear stress, significant wave height and mean wave direction, near-bottom orbital velocity, and suspended sediment concentration, and the erosion risk index.

Designed improvements. The coastal application builds on the existing AdriFS technology, which downscales CMEMS products using a two-way coupled wave-circulation system, but does not currently include a sediment module. The new application introduces an explicit sediment module into the coupled system and incorporates several improvements developed within the FOCCUS project, including enhanced river inputs from WP4/5, reconstructed multipartition wave spectra used as improved lateral boundary conditions, higher temporal frequency of circulation fields from WP6/7, and the integration of coastal data assimilation techniques.

Links with other FOCCUS components. Observations (WP2/3): sea surface height from remote sensing (D2.1, product 2.1.1) and upcoming coastal in situ data (D2.1, product 2.3.2) for validation. Land-Ocean Continuum (WP4/5): improved freshwater inputs for the Po river from D4.2 (product 4.1) and the Estuary Box Model (MS4.1, 4.1). Integrated coastal model systems (WP6/7): the MSCS "AdriFS" system, inheriting the improvements of D6.1 and D6.2.

Expected outputs / target products - indicators. Maps for one year (2019) of seasonal fields relevant to sediment dynamics, including currents and near-bottom orbital velocity; maps of erosion risk indicators based on mean values and percentiles of suspended sediment concentration and bottom shear stress. Timeseries on click, statistics on demand computation for the area of interest.

Fit-for-purpose validation. The wave and circulation models are validated against in situ and remote sensing observations available within the domain for sea level and significant wave height; suspended sediment concentration is qualitatively evaluated against satellite data. Key validation metrics are RMSE, bias, correlation and scatter index.

End users / stakeholders. Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) - coastal protection, extreme events; Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna (ARPAE), Italy - coastal protection, extreme events; AMA-Coopmare - aquaculture / shellfish farming. The service supports these users by providing erosion risk information in a form that is directly usable for coastal protection planning, for the assessment of extreme events and for the management of shellfish farming areas: which stretches of coast are most exposed, how exposure varies through the seasons, and what the conditions were during a specific event.

Provider: CMCC Foundation

The demonstrator is developed within FOCCUS Work Package 9, Deliverable 9.1, which focuses on demonstrating the different applications used for open-to-coastal ocean forecasting and observation services.