OpenMod4Africa

Part of EU Open Research Repository
Published June 29, 2026 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Comparative least-cost electrification pathways in West Africa: A spatially explicit analysis using OnSSET

Authors/Creators

  • 1. Centre de Test des Systèmes Solaires (CT2S) of Dakar
  • 2. Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique
  • 3. Cheikh Anta Diop University
  • 4. ROR icon University of Pisa

Description

This study applies the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to assess least-cost electrification pathways across the fifteen ECOWAS countries under harmonized techno-economic assumptions to 2030. Unlike most existing OnSSET applications, which focus on national or sub-national analyses, this study provides a regional-scale comparative assessment of electrification pathways, investment requirements, technology allocation, and spatial cost heterogeneity across West Africa. The analysis examines how settlement density, infrastructure proximity, and technology-specific costs influence electrification outcomes under a consistent modelling framework.
Results show that grid extension remains cost-effective in dense urban and peri-urban corridors, while decentralized solutions, particularly mini-grid photovoltaic (MG PV) and stand-alone photovoltaic (SA PV) systems, dominate least-cost pathways in remote and low-density areas. Significant cross-country differences are observed in investment requirements, average LCOE, technology shares, and last-mile electrification costs. The findings also reveal a structural distinction between access-oriented technologies that maximize population coverage and energy-oriented technologies that support higher electricity supply levels.
The results highlight the growing marginal cost of reaching the remaining unelectrified population and emphasize the importance of differentiated electrification strategies combining grid reinforcement, decentralized systems, and regional coordination under the West African Power Pool (WAPP). While the harmonized approach enables systematic comparison across countries, it does not fully capture country-specific financing conditions, productive electricity demand, or institutional constraints. The study nevertheless provides a regional planning perspective that can support ECOWAS electrification strategies and long-term progress toward SDG7.

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Additional details

Funding

European Commission
OpenMod4Africa - Open Modelling Toolbox for development of long-term pathways for the energy system in Africa 101118123