Influence of expectations of economic agents on parameters of cyclic development of economy at various types of structural disbalance

Development of social and economic systems is characterized by cyclic dynamics of the changes happening in them. These changes affect various parties and levels of an economic system, its structure, forming a number of regularities. Among them regularities of development of economic cycles in various types of economic nonequilibrium systems are of considerable inter-est. Not smaller interest is received to what factors exert impact on structure of reproduction processes, and also on processes of adoption of decisions by the main economic agents. The last, in turn, in many respects determine the nature and dynamics of the shift phase in economic cycles.
During the research the author's technique allowed to predict the shift phase in short-term economic cycles which with rather high probability and accuracy permits predicting dynamics of cyclic development of economy for the short-term period. Seven subindexes characterizing institutional and tactical shifts in the social and economic systems participating in development of the integrated indicator (an index of the advancing development) estimating expectations of economic agents with use of a method of the taxonomical analysis, allowing determining most authentically the specific weight of each of the received subindexes entered in this model.
As a result of the realized estimates and calculations the conclusion was drawn that the largest level of impact on parameters of cyclic development of market economy, by means of generation of the corresponding phase shifts, the factors characterizing the level of development of a human capital, social well-being, and also research potential have.
Possible reasons for a main hypothesis about the determining nature of influence of expectations of economic agents on structural and economic shifts of economy the analysis of their influence on parameters of an industrial development in case of various types of an economic disbalance is performed. As the main approaches promoting carrying out this stage of work the methods of economic-mathematical modeling allowed to reveal dependences between the endogenous variable (index of industrial production) and an exogenous variable reflecting dynamics of an index of the advancing development estimat-ing the level of the created expectations of economic agents in time are chosen.
By results of the carried-out estimates, it is proved that exposure of dynamics of industrial production to the adjusted expectations has less obvious character. Value of coefficient in case of the indicator esti-mating an index of the advancing development made 1,77 that is much lower than a similar indicator for economy with the weakened levers of administrative pressure.
Summing up the results concerning a role of expectations of economic agents in economic development of systems of various type, it is established that extent of their influence is inversely proportional to development of the administrative markets and different administrative restrictions.