D3.9 - Dataset for estimates for future distribution of species and habitats under climate change in the Baltic Sea

This dataset provides spatially explicit estimates of the future distribution of marine species across the Baltic Sea under projected climate change conditions across several scenarios. The outputs consist of geospatial data layers describing potential future habitat suitability and species occurrence patterns for use in subsequent analyses, regional assessments, and applications at national level.

The projections were developed using species distribution modelling (SDM) approaches (see Deliverable 3.6), which combine current species occurrence data with environmental variables. In this modelling exercise, however, the environmental variables represent future climate conditions. Future environmental scenarios were derived from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model RCO-SCOBI (Rossby Centre Ocean model-Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model), which provides projections of key environmental drivers such as temperature, salinity, oxygen concentrations, nutrient dynamics, and hydrodynamic conditions (see Deliverable 3.8).