Published July 15, 2026
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QNFO 100-Year Paradigm Forecast: A Cascading Bayesian Dependency Model with Evidence Synthesis, Red-Team Audit, and Phase 0 MVP Verification
Description
Comprehensive 100-year paradigm-shift forecast applying the Cascading Bayesian Foresight Engine (CFPE) across four scientific eras spanning 2026-2126. The forecast evaluates 18 paradigm-shift candidates across quantum computing (FCI passive topological QC), bio-mimetic room-temperature spintronics, hydrodynamic quantum mechanics, and pre-geometric unification. After rigorous evidence synthesis, multi-adversarial red-team auditing, and Phase 0 MVP verification (5 LLM-executed tasks including Kapitza thermal ceiling calculation confirming a 4,000x heat-to-conductance ratio), the evidence-adjusted cascade expected value is ~13.5% (revised from an initial 52.4%). Six predictions are registered with falsification tests and back-testing cadence (next check: 2027-01-15). Source: 16 Obsidian markdown files, 616 QNFO papers in D1 living-paper database, 2,064-node Knowledge Graph. Methodology: CFPE (impact_matrix.py, ~450 lines Python). Includes Shor's Algorithm policy brief, experimental protocols for Eras 1-3, and calibration register.
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QNFO_PARADIGM_FORECAST.md
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