Published July 16, 2026
| Version 2.0
Technical note
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QNFO 100-Year Paradigm Forecast v2.0: Calibrated Bayesian Cascade with Scenario Testing
Description
Updated 100-year paradigm-shift forecast across 4 eras (2026-2126+). Calibrated through historical back-casting (1976-2026, 1950-2000, 1926-1976) and stress-tested from 8 independent attack vectors. Full cascade EV: 6.5% [4-9%]. Era 1 (2026-2036): Continuity dominates (82%), FCI breakthrough 8%. Era 2 (2036-2046): Gate-based QC wins (64%), NV-center wildcard 15%. Era 3 (2046-2076): CMB prediction is the linchpin. Era 4 (2076-2126+): Geometric constants face strongest headwinds (57% pessimistic).
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QNFO_100YR_FORECAST_V2.pdf
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