SYNERGETICS D5.2 - Updated Transition Pathways & Landscape of Synergies

This report describes the Updated Transition Pathways & Landscape of Synergies for decarbonizing inland waterway transport (IWT) and coastal shipping. The assumptions and scenarios from the 2021 CCNR Roadmap are revised and insights from STEERER, NEEDS, and other EU initiatives are integrated. For each technology the latest developments are summarised and the latest findings on costs and emission factors are used. Prices of energy carriers were modelled based on the World Energy Outlook 2024 published by the International Energy Agency. For the analyses reported here, mainly the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario were used. The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) is described as well, but corresponding results are left out of the report for better clarity.

The NEEDS model was used to calculate the development of technology shares for a set of vessels on pre-defined routes. Since the energy prices in each scenario are provided with a bandwidth, the simulations were performed for the STEPS and NZE scenarios with combinations of the minimum prices for conventional fuels and the maximum prices for alternative fuels and vice versa. In addition, the influence of a 60 % CAPEX funding is examined.

The Landscape of Synergies (chapter 6) section examines the interdependencies between policy, technology, and infrastructure. It notes that the adoption of hydrogen, methanol, and battery-electric propulsion is influenced by regulatory frameworks, infrastructure availability, and economic factors. For instance, the lack of bunkering facilities for hydrogen and methanol, as well as the need for standardized charging infrastructure for battery-electric systems, are key barriers to their widespread adoption.

The report suggests that a coordinated approach is necessary to address the economic, regulatory, and infrastructure challenges of decarbonization. This includes measures such as introducing carbon pricing, providing financial (and fiscal) incentives, accelerating infrastructure development, harmonizing regulations, and fostering collaboration among stakeholders.

The report also emphasizes the importance of timely action. Given the long lifetimes of ships and technologies, delays in policy implementation could hinder progress toward the 2050 targets. The SYNERGETICS Expert Scenario demonstrates that, with the right policy mix, the sector can make significant strides toward its decarbonization goals.