Dataset to Deliverable D5.2 (D10) Stakeholder validated baselines

Executive summary

This dataset contains the stakeholder-validated BAU baseline results developed within the BrightSpace project. The baseline preparation followed an iterative process involving harmonisation across modelling teams and feedback collected during stakeholder retreats, organised in Leuven in 2024 and 2025. 
The Excel file compiles the baseline projections from the BrightSpace modelling toolbox, joining the modelling systems AGMEMOD, CAPRI, GLOBIOM, IMAGE, and MAGNET. The projections cover macroeconomic, market, and land use results, as well as those Safe and Just Operating Space (SJOS) indicators which had been quantified when preparing this baseline.
The file includes the generated model outputs and two prepared pivot tables: one displaying time series results (2020, 30, 40, 50) from the models for one selectable region, and the other table illustrates the heterogeneity of developments from 2020 to 2040 across regions (e.g. EU Member States).

Funding acknowledgement

Funded by the European Union. Grant Agreement No. 101060075. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

UK Research and Innovation Project Code: 10047415 https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10047415

Citation

Artavia Oreamuno, M. A., Doelman, J., Frank, S., Havlik, P., Kesting, M., Krüger, C., Kumar, I., van Leeuwen, M., Luchtenbelt, H., Müller, M., Salputra, G., Schäfer, D., Witzke, P., & van Zeist, W.-J. (2026). Dataset to Deliverable D5.2 (D10) Stakeholder validated baselines (Version v01) [Data set]. BrightSpace Horizon Europe project GA Nr. 101060075. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20448752

Legal notice

This document was produced under the terms and conditions of Grant Agreement No. 101060075 for the European Commission. It does not necessary reflect the view of the European Union and in no way anticipates the Commission’s future policy in this area. The European Commission is not liable for any consequence stemming from the reuse of this publication.

© BrightSpace, 2026

The reuse of this document is authorised under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated.
For any use or reproduction of elements that are not owned by the BrightSpace consortium, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders.

Project information

BrightSpace Horizon Europe project Grant Agreement No. 101060075
https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101060075
CALL: Innovative governance, environmental observations and digital solutions in support of the Green Deal
WORK PROGRAMME Topic ID: HORIZON-CL6-2021-GOVERNANCE-01-12 EU agriculture within a safe and just operating space and planetary boundaries

BrightSpace Project coordination: Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, NL
Contact: brightspace.wecr@wur.nl | Website: www.brightspace-project.eu

Project duration: 1 November 2022 – 31 October 2027