Forecast of gaps in critical supplies for Rail Innovations. A pan-European approach for resilience

Despite the increasing competition, the European rail supply industry still holds world leadership on the
market for rail products thanks to its investments in R&D. At the same time Europe is not producing around ¼
of the Railway supplies it needs; these include raw materials, intermediate products and finished products
from overseas. The COVID-19 and the following crisis ("permacrisis") and the related supply
disruptions⎯despite their difference in duration and reasons⎯have taught that the more you rely on Global
Value Chains for your supplies, the more vulnerable you are. And in too many cases, the supply of key
components and raw materials is not only very far from Europe but also concentrated in a few places, which
boosts vulnerability. Not only: the greater frequency and severity of climate hazards is teaching that climate
change is one more source of disruptions, interrupting production, raising costs and prices, and hurting
corporate resilience. Also, supply vulnerability increases proportionally with the increasing demand for
Advanced Technologies and Advanced Materials necessary to deliver (also) rail innovations.
Europe’s actual capacity to produce for the market the innovations its industries and Academia are developing
within the 'Europe's Rail R&I programme' is therefore challenged in the project "LEADER 2030", from which
this research stems. This risk, however, is not only confined within Europe but is global.
The Paper proposed by this international team offers food for thought to the audience of the WCRR 2025 and
considerations about the design and resilient sourcing for rail innovations.
Keywords: Critical Supplies, Innovation, Autonomy, Resilience, Value Chain