The futures of digital democracy
Authors/Creators
- 1. Department of Media Studies, Paderborn University, Paderborn, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
Description
This paper investigates the potential impacts of digitalisation on society and democratic governance through the construction of four realist science fiction scenarios. The study aims to delineate desirable and undesirable digital futures to inform policy discourse and strategic planning. It begins with the outlining of the research basis and methodology, where it employs a methodological synthesis of the Scenario Development Technique from the UN Strategic Foresight Guide and STEEP Analysis. This approach integrates a macro environmental assessment of socio-cultural, technological, economic, environmental, and political dimensions to identify key drivers of change and differences. These are then mapped onto a two-by-two matrix defined by two primary axes. This combination enabled the development of four scenarios examining the impact of digital technologies across these dimensions. The scenarios diverge along two axes. The vertical axis represents the mode of societal organisation and political power (authoritarianism versus democracy). The horizontal axis represents the mode of governance and citizen engagement (representation versus participation). By contrasting these divergent paths, this paper provides a critical framework for analysing how digital technologies intersect with political will and socioeconomic structures.
This paper explores how digital technology might change society and government in the future. To do this, the authors created four realistic science fiction scenarios based on and utopian and dystopian view. These stories are designed to help us think about what kind of digital future may be desired, and which ones should be avoided. The authors combined two research methods to create these scenarios:
• UN Strategic Foresight: A tool for identifying big changes that will happen in the future.
• STEEP Analysis: A way of looking at the big picture by studying five key areas: Society, Technology, Economics, Environment, and Politics.
• Using this combination of methods, four scenarios are created and analysed:
• Representative Digital Authoritarianism
• Participatory Digital Authoritarianism
• Representative Digital Democracy
• Participatory Digital Democracy
By looking at these scenarios the paper then outlines possible future outcomes for the citizens and highlights the importance and weight of how technology can or cannot be used to augment politics.
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Additional details
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