ENTICE: D4.1 – Reference scenario and metrics

This deliverable defines a common reference scenario and a harmonised set of quantitative indicators to support the analysis of trade–industry–environment interactions within the ENTICE project. It provides a shared analytical framework to ensure coherence and comparability across modelling exercises and policy assessments conducted in Work Packages 4 and 5. 

Building on inputs from a dedicated Scenario Definition Workshop conduced within ENTICE, the deliverable identifies the main dimensions shaping the trade–industry–environment nexus and organises them into a layered scenario framework. This approach enables the characterisation of critical shifts in system and the exploration of alternative trajectories that frame the outer range of plausible trajectories around the reference pathway resulting in a limited set of archetypal narratives capturing contrasting configurations of trade integration, industrial organisation, climate ambition, and enabling conditions. 

The report establishes a single reference scenario reflecting recent historical trends and currently implemented climate and trade policies, anchored to the updated socioeconomic development assumptions of the SSP2 “Middle of the Road” pathway. This reference scenario serves as a neutral benchmark for assessing the impacts of alternative trade, climate, and industrial policy configurations. Key assumptions are specified for core socioeconomic drivers, selected exogenous drivers such as energy prices, extractive materials, and technology costs, and for the treatment of climate, trade, and industrial policies in the baseline. 

In addition, the report proposes a structured set of indicators to describe trade patterns, industrial structures, and environmental outcomes, including greenhouse gas emissions and broader environmental pressures such as resource use, land-use change, biodiversity, and pollution. The indicators are designed to be computable from ENTICE modelling tools and to support cross-model comparison and integration. Together, these elements establish the reference framework and metrics underpinning subsequent ENTICE scenario analyses.