Assessing Coastal Heritage Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise in the Mediterranean: A Semi-Quanti-tative Review Towards Usable Knowledge and In-tegrated Adaptation Frameworks

Abstract:Mediterranean coasts have one of the world’s richest concentrations of cultural heritage, yet this legacy is increasingly threatened by sea-level rise (SLR), coastal erosion and storm impacts. Despite a growing number of local and thematic studies, regional syntheses remain scarce. This paper presents a semi-quantitative review of more than sixty peer-reviewed publications and in-stitutional reports (2010–2024) addressing coastal heritage vulnerability in the Mediterranean. Drawing on a harmonised database, each study has been classified by country, heritage type, threat, temporal horizon and methodological approach, and evaluated through standardised se-verity (0–5) and risk (1–3) scales. Results reveal three interrelated dimensions of imbalance—geo-graphical,methodological and temporal. Geographically, a pronounced north–south asymmetry persists: Italy, Spain and Greece concentrate more than half of all studies, while North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean remain under-represented. Methodologically, about45% of works em-ploy DEM-based geospatial modelling, 25% rely on field evidence, and only 10% address manage-ment or policy dimensions. Prospectively, most analyses project impacts to 2100 under high-emis-sion scenarios, with more than 70% of assessed sites showing moderate-to-high vulnerability. Alt-hough comprehensive, the sample is not systematic, and geographic patterns partly reflect differ-ences in research capacity rather than exposure. A critical weakness identified across the literature is the limited transfer of scientific results into usable frameworks for planners and heritage man-agers, underscoring the need for performance and usability assessment in future climate-adapta-tion research. Advancing this field requires standardised indicators, broader regional coverage, and stronger interdisciplinary integration between coastal science, archaeology and heritage manage-ment to inform effective adaptation strategies for safeguarding Mediterranean coastal heritage under accelerating climate change.